Gold update: gold is rising 6,3%

Gold has had its best week since March this year. Last week, a 9-day streak of falling prices came to an end. This week, that loss evaporated and the gold price rose to the level of June this year. The reason for the increase is the situation in the Middle East. Tensions have been increasing for a week, causing investors to opt for gold as a safe haven.

The US dollar also strengthened slightly this week, ending at 106.45 points. The 10-year yield in the US fell slightly to 4.61%. Inflation in the US stood at 3.7% in September. Core inflation, the figure excluding energy and food, fell to 4.1%.

Inflation appeared to have fallen in the Netherlands. Inflation stood at 2.8% in September. Core inflation also fell but is still very high at 5.5%. Klaas Knot, the president of the Dutch Bank (DNB), indicated this week that he expects interest rates to remain at the current high level for at least another year.

DNB warned this week that Dutch financial institutions must prepare for higher credit risks and further price corrections in the commercial real estate market.

It also turned out that the number of bankruptcies in the Netherlands is increasing significantly. The number of bankruptcies has increased by 60% in 9 months compared to the same period in 2022. The higher interest rates may have partly played an important role in this.

The 10-year interest rate on Dutch debt paper closed this week at 3.08%. This is the highest level since 2011. Higher interest rates will increasingly have an impact on the economy. The mortgage interest rate is now above 4.5% with every lender. Student loans will also become a lot more expensive in a short time. As of January 1, 2024, the interest on student debt will increase by a factor of 5.

Central bankers have shown courage in quickly raising interest rates to stifle inflation. This is very ambitious given the high debt levels worldwide. The question is how persistent they are when inflation rises again and interest rates have to rise further and whether they can keep interest rates at this level when the economy is in dire straits.

Gold is rising €3520 per kg

Goud steeg deze week met €3520 per kg en eindigde net boven de €59.000 per kg. Procentueel is de goudprijs deze week met 6,3% gestegen. In Amerikaanse dollars kwam de prijs uit op $1932 per troy ounce. Dit jaar is de goudprijs 8,1% gestegen waarmee de inflatie ruimschoots wordt gecompenseerd.

Zilver steeg deze week met 6,1% en eindigde op €694 per kg. In Amerikaanse dollars sloot de prijs op $22,74 per troy ounce. Daarmee staat zilver dit jaar nog niet op winst. In euro’s noteert een belegging in zilver in 2023 op een verlies van 3,3%. De goud-zilver ratio sloot op 1:85.

Agenda

The final inflation figure in the eurozone will be announced on Wednesday. The unemployment rate in the Netherlands will follow on Thursday. The weekly aid applications in the US will also be published on Thursday.